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Demographic development

Bonn grows by 906 inhabitants

According to the updated census results from 2011, the official population of the city of Bonn will be 330,579 at the end of 2020. Compared to the end of 2019, the population has increased by 906 persons or 0.3%. As in the past, the population growth can be based on a positive balance of people moving in and out: Bonn was able to gain about 670 inhabitants in 2020. The natural population movement, i.e. the balance of births and deaths, has been consistently positive in Bonn since 1987, and in 2020 there will also be an increase of around 230 inhabitants.

Municipal data

Parallel to the collection of official figures by IT.NRW, the statistics office of the City of Bonn generates the "municipal" population figures on the basis of the civil register. At the end of 2020, the statistics office counted a total of 333,794 Bonn residents with their sole or main place of residence in the city according to statistical analysis of the civil register data. Compared to the previous year, the population has increased by +1,025 persons, which corresponds to a growth of approximately +0.3%. The current population figure does not include a total of 2,374 people who were living in a transitional or initial reception facility for migrants run by the state of North Rhine-Westphalia or the city of Bonn as of the reporting date. Furthermore, 4,891 people who were listed in the population register as having a secondary residence as of the reporting date are not included in the statistically relevant population figure.

Population forecast: plus 12.1% by 2040

According to the current population forecast of the State Statistical Office IT.NRW, which is based on the update of the 2011 census, Bonn will also grow significantly in the longer term. According to this, the population will increase from 325,500 to 364,800 between Jan. 1, 2018 and Jan. 1, 2040, which corresponds to growth of 39,300 people in absolute terms or +12.1% in percentage terms. Together with Cologne (+15.8%), Düsseldorf (+14.0%) and Münster (+13.9%), Bonn is thus one of the fastest-growing independent cities and districts in NRW. The positive development in Bonn is supported by a surplus of births and deaths of +3.4% and a positive migration balance of +8.7%. The strong birth surplus is special in that only the four cities mentioned and the city of Aachen (+0.2%) have a positive birth balance in North Rhine-Westphalia. The population in NRW as a whole will grow only slightly by about +0.9% by 2040, since the positive net migration (+7.1%) can only minimally offset the negative developments from the balance of births and deaths (-6.1%). 

According to the IT.NRW forecast, the Rhein-Sieg district, which surrounds Bonn, will also increase by +6.0% or by 35,900 to 635,000 inhabitants. However, the growth in the Rhein-Sieg district is exclusively due to the positive migration balance, as the balance of births and deaths is clearly declining at -6.3%. In contrast, according to the forecast, the balance of people moving in and out is the second strongest in North Rhine-Westphalia at +12.3%; only the Rhine district of Neuss is expected to show an even better migration balance of +12.5%.

Mr. Dr. Matthias Schönert

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